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Superstitious Fear, Irrational Optimism

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How likely are you to be infected with the coronavirus or die of Covid-19? It is difficult to say. We don't know how soon, or if at all, we'll have either a cure or a vaccine.

We don't know exactly how deadly the virus is either: The death rate in confirmed cases varies from place to place (e.g., 12 percent in Wuhan, 4 percent in Hubei Province, and 0.9 percent in the rest of China).

In addition, the rate depends on the overall number of infections, not on the number of reported cases, but how many unreported Covid-19 cases there are, we can only guess.

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