David Davis Neil Ferguson Heath Robinson people Coronavirus telegraph beauty David Davis Neil Ferguson Heath Robinson

Is the chilling truth that the decision to impose lockdown was based on crude mathematical guesswork?

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My article with MP David Davis for The Telegraph: Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College “stepped back” from the Sage group advising ministers when his lockdown-busting romantic trysts were exposed.

Perhaps he should have been dropped for a more consequential misstep. Details of the model his team built to predict the epidemic are emerging and they are not pretty.

In the respective words of four experienced modellers, the code is “deeply riddled” with bugs, “a fairly arbitrary Heath Robinson machine”, has “huge blocks of code – bad practice” and is “quite possibly the worst production code I have ever seen”.

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